Civil War in Iraq?
By: S. Rowan Wolf, Ph.D., Uncommon Thought Journal
September 15, 2004 This work is under a fair use Creative Commons License

The rumblings for months have been that "civil war" is brewing in Iraq. That news is coupled with reports of the "ineffectiveness" of Iraqi police and troops. Both are not so subtle arguments for why the US needs to stay in Iraq. Or if you take a different slant, these events are reflective of a "failed policy" by the Bush administration and why we need to stay in Iraq. The voices are few for "correcting" the situation and getting foreign troops out of Iraq.

If we step back in time to the original invasion and its aftermaths, you may vaguely remember complaints about US forces not implementing security after overthrowing Saddam Hussein. While the oil ministry and its documents were protected, other offices were not, and certainly "ordinary" Iraqi's were not. Scenes of looting were rampant and citizens raided government buildings to take whatever they could carry away.

The infra-structure of Iraq had already been weakened by the 1991 Gulf War and twelve years of harsh sanctions. It virtually collapsed during Bush's "shock and awe" invasion. Today, most of that infrastructure remains in ruins.

The destruction of Iraq in the effort to "save" them, and "protect" the US destroyed the economic infrastructure of Iraq, and left over 60% of the population unemployed. "Opening" Iraq to business (read privatization and no-bid contracts - see $1.9 Billion of Iraq's Money Goes to U.S. Contractors) has not helped the situation as the US corporations generally have not hired Iraqis for "security" reasons. Instead, they have imported low wage workers from outside the country. That has left the US military as the single largest employer in Iraq. If you are out of a job (which most are) and your family is starving (and many are) then the options are few - work for the US, or turn to crime. That crime includes working for the various "insurgent" groups. Fear of becoming a target has led to an 80% desertion rate by Iraqi troops. Of course it doesn't help that the US is not paying on schedule.

As sentiment against US occupation of Iraq has increased, and groups have drawn on the growing anger and despair of "ordinary" Iraqis to recruit, the situation has truly become no-win. You can try for the only jobs available - primarily police and military (both run and paid by the US) and symbolic of the occupation - or crime. These forces then become targets of opportunity as desperate people (mainly men) are labeled as collaborators working for the enemy.

The US is making the typical response - use more force to "control" the situation. In my opinion, this is only throwing fuel on the fire. Nothing is more symbolic of this than the report that the Iraqi rebuilding fund to be spent on security. W got the warning of this impending shift on August 31, when Negroponte recommended shifting funds from rebuilding to security. The reality is that US tax dollars have largely not been spent on rebuilding Iraq. And that is the heart of the problem.

If a reasonable attempt had been made at maintaining ordinary security and truly rebuilding critical infrastructure - including the Iraqi economy - then the US might not be seen as an imperial occupying force only interested in controlling and exploiting Iraq's wealth - its oil reserves. Shifting yet more funds to "security" aggravates the problem. Force will beget force. Killing of Iraqi civilians will fan the flames of anger. I personally do not think that getting more aggressive is going to resolve the situation. It is clear that while Hussein may have been able to subdue and control through terror and force, that an occupier will not have the same success. Britain should tell the US that doesn't work as they already "been there done that."

There truly is a threat of civil war. The US actions - from the invasion forward - have created a power vacuum in Iraq. The emplacement of "outsiders" such as the Chalabis, and former CIA operatives in positions of power also undermines attempts at self rule and raises credibility and trust issues.

There is an escalation and expansion of violence in Iraq, and the US should take heed when it is warned by Amr Mussa (head of the Arab League) that the 'Gates of Hell' are Open in Iraq. Both US troops who are now constant targets, and Iraqis, are paying the ultimate price for the decisions being made.

My suggestions? Get the infrastructure working. Get Iraq in charge of its own economy and get people working - and not for the US military. Make sure that critical services are dependable. Of course security is an issue that needs to be addressed, but focusing on that alone will only enflame the situation.


Other Articles of Interest 7/04/04 Roche & Silverstein, LA Times Advocates of War Now Profit From Iraq's Reconstruction 2/04/04 Corporate Watch Investigation Reveals Reconstruction Racket in Iraq 4/20/04 Vest, Village Voice, Fables of the Reconstruction 6/21/04 Weisman, NYT, THE REACH OF WAR: RECONSTRUCTION; U.S. Is Quietly Spending $2.5 Billion From Iraqi Oil Revenue to Pay for Iraqi Projects 8/21/04 Mackay, IPS, 'Staggering Amount' of Cash Missing In Iraq