By S. Rowan Wolf, PhD
Uncommon Thought Journal, Feb 26, 2006
All hell has broken loose in Iraq with the bombing of the Askariya shrine in Samarra on February 22, 2005. The shrine is one of the holiest of Shi'ite sites.
In the ensuing days, riots, peace marches, and further attacks on mosques have left hundreds dead The concern is that the sectarian violence in Iraq may have tipped over into a civil war. The US military response has been to keep a low profile, and let the Iraqi military and police deal with the violence. I guess this is an example of "we'll stand down when they stand up." However, the escalation in violence highlights the dirty little secret - there is no official Iraqi authority in Iraq. There are also no Iraqi battalions ready to operate independent of U.S. control and support:
"The number of Iraqi army battalions judged by their American trainers to be capable of fighting insurgents without U.S. help has fallen from one to none since September, Pentagon officials said yesterday." U.S. Report on Iraqi Troops Is Mixed
I made a visit to the CIA Factbook entry on Iraq. It is a revealing collection. Under Government type, it says:none; note - the Iraqi Transitional Government (ITG) was elected on 30 January 2005>." What small authority it may have had was undermined, and any pretense to a government independent of the U.S. were laid to rest when the U.S. "cautioned" Iraq to steer clear of a sectarian government.
The violence now arising, and what some have said has been going on for sometime, is painted as a civil war. One might think that is natural given the power vacuum that has occurred with the U.S. "regime change" in Iraq. Hussein held Iraq in an iron grip, but he is Sunni. With the U.S. invasion of Iraq, not only was Hussein removed from power, but the government was also totally dismantled. The Sunnis in government were rounded up, and the Iraqi army was disbanded. This created a tremendous power and authority vacuum in Iraq, and the groups next in line were religious leaders. The U.S. was in no position to stop or control the emergence of religious groups or "war lords" to emerge and fight over the reins of power. It still is not in position to do so.
Instead, the U.S. created the Coalition Provisional Authority as a puppet of the United States, and a facilitator of exploitation of Iraq. Then, a transitional government was "voted" in - also under U.S. control. Their task was largely to write a constitution. The splits between Sunni, Shi'ite, and Kurd, became abundantly clear. The only seemingly unifying factor across the emerging groups was hatred of the U.S. occupation of Iraq. The CIA Factbook reports that Iraq still does not have a government. What they do have is a "275-member Council of Representatives that will finalize a permanent constitution." The listing of the political parties and leaders shows the Iraqi competition for power:
Al-Sadr Movement [Muqtada Al-SADR]; Assyrian Democratic Movement [Yunadim KANNA]; Conference of Iraqi People [Adnan al-DULAYMI]; Constitutional Monarchy Movement or CMM [Sharif Ali Bin al-HUSAYN]; Da'wa Party [Ibrahim al-JA'FARI]; Independent Iraqi Alliance or IIA [Falah al-NAQIB]; Iraqi Communist Party [Hamid al-MUSA]; Iraqi Hizballah [Karim Mahud al-MUHAMMADAWI]; Iraqi Independent Democrats or IID [Adnan PACHACHI, Mahdi al-HAFIZ]; Iraqi Islamic Party or IIP [Muhsin Abd al-HAMID, Hajim al-HASSANI]; Iraqi National Accord or INA [Ayad ALLAWI]; Iraqi National Congress or INC [Ahmad CHALABI]; Iraqi National Council for Dialogue or INCD [Khalaf Ulayan al-Khalifawi al-DULAYMI]; Iraqi National Unity Movement or INUM [Ahmad al-KUBAYSI, chairman]; Islamic Action Organization or IAO [Ayatollah Muhammad al-MUDARRISI]; Jama'at al Fadilah or JAF [Ayatollah Muhammad ' Ali al-YAQUBI]; Kurdistan Democratic Party or KDP [Masud BARZANI]; Muslim Ulama Council or MUC [Harith Sulayman al-DARI, secretary general]; National Iraqi Front [Salih al-MUTLAQ]; National Reconciliation and Liberation Party [Mishan al-JABBURI]; Patriotic Union of Kurdistan or PUK [Jalal TALABANI]; Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq or SCIRI [Abd al-Aziz al-HAKIM] note: the Kurdish Alliance, the National Iraqi List, the Iraqi Consensus Front, the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue, and the United Iraqi Alliance were only electoral slates consisting of the representatives from the various Iraqi political parties.
The papers talk of a civil war, but there is more at risk here than civil war. The current violence - if it coalesces into a Sunni vs Shi'ite struggle - could easily become genocide. Iraq is roughly 60-65% Shia, and 32-37% Sunni with a smattering of Christians (CIA Factbook). Further, what government does exist in Iraq is Shia and has the U.S. military behind it. Reports of the abuses of the police forces (Shia) and the Iraqi military (Shia) draw a cold line that has surely fanned the fears of reprisal and elimination by the Sunni population. However, while religion may fan the flames of the escalating violence, under that is the issue of one, who rules Iraq, and two, retribution for the Sunni dominated rule of Iraq under Hussein.
While those are the lines, the lives of Iraqi's are not so easily divided into percentages of the population. Hussein ran a secular government. Any disputes between Sunni and Shia in terms of formal power was suppressed. In this environment where religion was not a force of rule or law, Sunni, Shia, Christians, and Kurds intermixed and inter-married. Many Iraqi's are "mixed." Assuming that the Shia "win" this conflict (and there is no reason to think that they would not), what happens to those whose lineages are mixed? Will there then be a purging of the lines to totally remove the Sunni "influence?"
It is important to affirm an ugly truth. The U.S. did not invade and occupy Iraq either to fight terrorism, nor to free the people of Iraq from Hussein's rule. It is now confirmed that within hours of the attack of 9/11/01 Rumsfeld ordered looking for links to Iraq. We also have Ted Koppel writing that oil was the driving force for invasion, and pointing out the construction of permanent U.S. bases in Iraq to assure the United States' ongoing control of Iraq's oil.
How will the people of the United States respond to either a civil war or the genocide of the Sunni in Iraq? That remains to be seen.
2/22/06 CNN.com, Gunmen strike 27 Baghdad mosques, kill imams
2/25/06 Hack, TPM Cafe, Sistani threatens to turn to Militia
Most of S. Rowan Wolf's commentaries can be read here or visit the Panoptic World homepage.